Selic high and dollar falling: Why Brazil has become the focus of foreign investors

The high Selic and the falling dollar form the combination that has put Brazil back on the radar of large international investors. In 2025, the inflow of foreign capital into the Brazilian stock market reached the highest level for a first half in three years. From January to June, B3 registered a strong movement of investors betting on the country’s recovery and the return differential that Brazil offers in relation to other economies. The highlight of this movement is the balance between two profiles: Those who seek risky assets, such as stocks, and those who prioritize security, predictability, and profitability mainly through fixed income and the real estate market.

In this article, we will understand why the return of foreigners to B3 reinforces Brazil’s attractiveness as an investment destination, especially in short-term government bonds and real estate located in strategic regions.

High interest rates, stability and attractive differential

With the Selic rate at 15% per year (July 2025), Brazil maintains one of the highest real interest rates in the world. Even with controlled inflation, high interest rates continue to be a monetary policy tool to contain external pressures and ensure macroeconomic stability.

This scenario creates an important differential compared to developed countries, where real rates remain close to zero or even negative. The attractiveness intensifies with the fall of the dollar against the real in 2025, which has favored emerging markets and reinforced the return of international capital.

What the foreign flow on B3 indicates

The increase in the flow of foreigners to the Brazilian stock exchange signals three important points:

• Confidence in Brazil’s macroeconomic stability;
• Search for high real return in a global environment of lower interest rates;
• Interest not only in stocks, but also in fixed income and real assets.

This shows that foreign investors are seeing Brazil as a safe allocation opportunity, especially for investment diversification

Fixed income: Short-term Treasury Direct as the main choice

Fixed-rate bonds linked to the IPCA maturing until 2026 or 2027 have gained prominence in this cycle of Selic increases. With nominal returns between 10.5% and 12% per year and real interest rates above 6%, they offer predictability, security and liquidity, a combination that is increasingly rare in the global market.

• Even with daily liquidity by Tesouro Direto, the recommendation continues to be to hold the paper until maturity, ensuring the contracted return without exposure to market volatility.

Real Estate in Bombinhas: Safe equity, liquidity and income in hard currency

The coast of Santa Catarina has consolidated itself as one of the most strategic destinations for foreign investors looking for real assets with legal certainty, liquidity and consistent returns. In a scenario of high interest rates and high profitability in fixed income, many choose to reinvest part of their profits in real estate with the potential for appreciation and passive income generation.

Among the cities that stand out in this movement is Bombinhas, where the hybrid profile of real estate investment allows for the combination of leisure and profitability. High-end developments, ideal for own use or vacation rental, offer a significant return in the summer months. Many foreigners buy in reais and rent in dollars or Argentine pesos, generating seasonal income in hard currency.

In addition to the tourist appeal, the region offers decisive differentials for those who invest from outside Brazil:

• Liquidity in compact and well-located properties, with constant demand for rent;
• Legal stability for foreigners, with the possibility of full ownership without the requirement of residence;
• Easy access by highways and airports, in a city that advances in infrastructure without losing its original charm.

In this new cycle of international investments, the municipality positions itself as more than a tourist destination: It is a solid alternative for building heritage with security and real return, in one of the most valued regions in southern Brazil.

Central Bank and analysts’ perspective

This environment favors foreign investors who seek legal certainty, high real returns, and stability for capital allocation. high real return with a medium-term horizon, especially in government bonds and real assets.

• The Central Bank signaled a prolonged pause in the Selic rate hike after reaching 15% per year.
• It is necessary to wait for the full effects of monetary tightening before considering cuts, even if it impacts economic growth.
• Market analysts project the Selic rate to remain at 15% until the beginning of 2026, with gradual reductions starting in the second quarter.

The current scenario reinforces:

• The predictability of Brazilian monetary policy;
• The commitment to controlling inflation;
• The credibility of the economic goals established by the Central Bank.

Conclusion: International confidence confirms Brazil’s potential

The strong foreign flow to B3 in 2025 is more than a technical fact, it is a direct reflection of confidence in Brazil as an investment destination. And not only in the stock market: Fixed income and the Brazilian real estate market are consolidating themselves as solid alternatives for those looking for real returns, stability and asset protection.

For investors who want to balance safety and profitability, the combination of short-term government bonds and well-located real estate remains one of the best decisions of 2025.

• Get to know Bombinhas on a 360º tour and see why the city is one of the most valued on the coast of Santa Catarina for those looking to invest safely and with high potential return.

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