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For the first time in two years, the dollar was once again traded below the R$5 mark, ending the day in the range of R$4.99. As a result, the movement marks a relevant change in the exchange rate scenario and rekindles international interest in Brazil. More than a punctual oscillation, the drop reflects a set of factors that have been consolidating in recent months and, thus, favor the appreciation of the real.
More stable global scenario favors emerging markets
Part of this movement begins outside the country. With a less tense international environment, there is, naturally, a reduction in the search for more conservative assets and, at the same time, a redirection of capital to economies with higher return potential. In practice, this is because there is a lower perception of global risk, while assets considered safe lose part of their attractiveness and, consequently, emerging countries start to offer better opportunities.
This set of factors directly favors economies such as Brazil, which once again attract foreign capital.
Timeline: from the recent peak to the drop below R$5
To understand this movement, it is worth observing how the dollar has behaved in recent years:
2024
- dollar operated above R$ 5 at various times
- More uncertain global scenario
- Greater search for protection by investors
2025
- exchange rate continued to fluctuate
- it remained, most of the time, above R$ 5
- market was still cautious with the international flow
2026 (current scenario)
- Consistent increase in the inflow of foreign capital
- Brazil now offers more attractive conditions
- stronger appreciation of the real
Now
- clear change in the market’s perception of Brazil
- dollar returns to trading below R$5
- lowest level since April 2024
High interest rates drive capital inflows
Another important factor is the level of interest rates in Brazil. With the Selic rate at 14.75% per year, the country stands out as a destination for capital in search of profitability. At the same time, developed economies are moving towards lower interest rates, which, in turn, reduces the return on investments considered safer. In this scenario, the differential makes Brazil more competitive and, in addition, expands the flow of dollars, consequently contributing to the appreciation of the real.
Brazilian stock market registers strong inflow of foreigners
This movement is already clearly appearing on the stock exchange. The Ibovespa operates close to historical highs, in the range of 198 thousand points, thus reflecting the increase in foreign participation. In addition, in January 2026 alone, the volume invested by foreigners in B3 exceeded the entire total recorded throughout 2025. As a result, the scenario indicates a relevant change in perception: Brazil is now seen as an opportunity, and not just as a risk market.
Real appreciates above the international average
Although the dollar is weaker on the global stage, the appreciation of the real draws attention. This is even more evident when we compare recent movements:
- The dollar fell about 1.6% against other international currencies
- In relation to the real, the drop reaches approximately 15%
Thus, the difference indicates that the movement in Brazil goes beyond a global trend and, at the same time, reflects internal factors that have been supporting the appreciation of the currency.
What changes with the dollar below R$ 5
In practice, the fall of the dollar is already beginning to impact the economy. As a result, imports become cheaper, pressure on inflation decreases, and international travel becomes more affordable. In the medium term, however, the main effect is the increase in foreign investor confidence. As more capital enters the country, the trend is to strengthen strategic sectors, such as infrastructure, the financial market, and the real estate sector, which, in turn, opens up space for asset appreciation, increased demand, and new investment cycles.
FAQs
1. Why did the dollar fall below R$5?
The drop is linked to the combination of a more stable global scenario, high interest rates in Brazil and, in addition, the increase in the inflow of foreign capital.
2. Can the dollar remain below R$5?
Yes, especially if the flow of foreign investment remains strong and, at the same time, the international environment remains favorable.
3. How does this impact the Brazilian economy?
A lower dollar reduces import costs, contributes to controlling inflation and, consequently, increases the country’s attractiveness to investors.
- Virtual tour in Bombinhas: visualize the real estate market that stands out the most in this new economic scenario.
Read more:
- Selic high and dollar falling: why Brazil has become the focus of foreign investors
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